Preseason Rankings
Patriot League
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
139 Colgate 31.0%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 4 12 - 4 +1.5      +2.4 111 -0.9 199 68.8 180 0.0 1 0.0 1
181 Boston University 18.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 4 8 - 4 -1.1      -0.4 184 -0.6 191 65.3 269 0.0 1 0.0 1
213 Navy 11.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 10 9 - 7 -3.6      -3.0 260 -0.6 188 57.8 346 0.0 1 0.0 1
220 Lafayette 11.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 7 9 - 7 -4.0      -0.6 191 -3.4 272 66.3 247 0.0 1 0.0 1
223 Bucknell 7.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 5 5 - 5 -4.1      -3.9 284 -0.2 175 71.7 96 0.0 1 0.0 1
235 American 7.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 6 6 - 6 -4.6      -2.7 250 -1.9 227 69.5 157 0.0 1 0.0 1
274 Loyola Maryland 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 9 7 - 9 -6.4      -1.6 217 -4.8 305 74.1 55 0.0 1 0.0 1
287 Lehigh 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 6 4 - 6 -7.1      -3.2 265 -3.9 289 69.0 171 0.0 1 0.0 1
289 Army 3.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 9 5 - 7 -7.2      -4.5 296 -2.7 249 71.4 105 0.0 1 0.0 1
335 Holy Cross 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 13 3 - 13 -13.6      -6.2 321 -7.4 335 69.0 173 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 1.8 60.8 19.8 8.4 4.6 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1
Boston University 4.1 8.5 13.4 20.2 21.9 15.8 8.5 5.3 3.7 1.7 1.0
Navy 3.6 18.4 23.6 17.4 12.0 9.0 6.2 5.0 4.2 3.0 1.1
Lafayette 3.9 16.6 19.8 18.1 11.5 9.4 6.5 5.9 5.3 5.1 2.0
Bucknell 6.8 0.4 1.7 4.5 8.3 11.3 15.9 17.1 17.8 15.4 7.7
American 5.4 3.0 10.0 13.0 13.2 13.0 12.3 12.0 10.9 8.4 4.2
Loyola Maryland 5.0 9.4 13.4 13.1 12.2 10.7 9.5 8.9 8.4 9.0 5.4
Lehigh 7.1 0.2 1.0 3.9 7.0 10.2 13.2 16.8 18.2 15.8 13.8
Army 6.3 1.7 3.7 6.4 10.3 13.6 18.1 16.2 12.4 9.8 7.9
Holy Cross 7.9 0.6 1.3 3.1 5.3 6.6 8.6 10.1 12.8 18.7 32.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Colgate 12 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.6 7.0 9.0 11.9 13.8 14.8 14.4 11.5 6.2
Boston University 8 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.7 4.5 8.0 11.6 15.3 16.4 15.4 13.0 8.3 3.3
Navy 9 - 7 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.0 7.4 9.7 10.9 11.5 11.7 10.3 9.4 6.7 4.5 2.3 0.8
Lafayette 9 - 7 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.8 5.8 6.6 8.4 9.7 10.6 10.4 10.3 9.5 7.8 6.3 4.2 2.4 0.6
Bucknell 5 - 11 2.1 6.3 10.6 14.0 15.9 16.1 13.8 10.9 6.6 2.9 0.8
American 6 - 10 1.3 3.4 5.9 8.5 10.2 12.2 12.9 12.1 11.7 9.2 7.0 4.3 1.4
Loyola Maryland 7 - 9 1.1 3.0 5.5 6.9 9.0 9.8 10.8 10.3 9.4 8.6 7.8 6.2 4.8 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.3
Lehigh 4 - 12 3.0 7.8 12.2 15.2 17.0 15.4 11.9 9.1 5.4 2.5 0.5
Army 5 - 11 1.4 4.0 7.6 11.3 14.8 15.5 15.0 12.0 8.4 5.3 3.1 1.2 0.3
Holy Cross 3 - 13 10.3 16.0 17.2 15.1 12.5 9.3 7.1 4.8 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 60.8% 48.6 10.3 1.5 0.2 0.1
Boston University 8.5% 4.2 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.1
Navy 18.4% 11.8 5.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
Lafayette 16.6% 10.6 4.9 0.9 0.1 0.1
Bucknell 0.4% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
American 3.0% 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 9.4% 5.9 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Army 1.7% 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 31.0% 30.9% 0.1% 16   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.9 5.2 8.5 8.0 5.4 69.0 0.1%
Boston University 18.0% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.2 5.5 5.0 82.0 0.0%
Navy 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.8 3.1 5.0 88.9 0.0%
Lafayette 11.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.3 3.5 3.2 89.0 0.1%
Bucknell 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 2.3 2.5 1.1 92.2 0.0%
American 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.4 2.4 92.5 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.4 94.2 0.0%
Lehigh 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.3 96.5 0.0%
Army 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 96.1 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 31.0% 2.3% 30.1% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 18.0% 2.5% 17.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 11.1% 2.8% 9.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 11.0% 1.7% 10.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 7.8% 0.5% 7.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 7.5% 1.3% 6.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 5.8% 1.5% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 3.5% 0.7% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 3.9% 1.3% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 93.2% 0.9 6.8 93.1 0.1
2nd Round 7.5% 0.1 92.5 7.5
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0